A pair of new reports show analysts are getting more bullish about renewables and electric vehicle adoption — and that gaming out the energy future is really tough, Ben writes.
Driving the news: The International Energy Agency just dropped its largest-ever upward revision of renewable power forecasts.
- IEA sees an additional 2,400 gigawatts of capacity coming online worldwide over the next half-decade.
Why it matters: That forecast is almost 30% (!) higher than last year’s edition of the rolling 5-year projections.
- The agency now sees renewables surpassing coal as the largest source of global power generation by 2025.
The big picture: The global energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is bringing “unprecedented” renewables momentum.
- “Fossil fuel supply disruptions have underlined the energy security benefits of domestically generated renewable electricity, leading many countries to strengthen policies supporting renewables,” IEA said.
- More expensive fossil fuels also tilt the playing field toward solar and wind.
Driving the news, part 2: New analysis from Columbia University’s energy think tank explores a wide set of medium- and long-term EV projections from 2019 and late 2021.
- They surveyed investment banks, governments, consultancies, energy companies and others.
- The many analyses see EVs ranging from 11% to 63% of global passenger car sales in 2030 and from 31% to almost 100% in 2050.
Yes, but: Part of this range stems from the kinds of studies they compared, which span modeling under existing policies, scenarios for a net-zero emissions pathway, and space in between.
- “The wide range is due to varying degrees of anticipated carbon constraints.”
Another takeaway: The 2021 analyses are mostly more bullish on the level of future EV growth than the 2019 takes, sometimes significantly (check out Figures 10 and 11 in the full report).
